What's New

The first half of 2026 presents a tale of two realities for China's smart lock industry: declining volume and value sales amid a surge in AI-powered premium product adoption.

1. Market Contraction: Volume and Value Decline

China's smart lock market experienced its first semi-yearly decline in both volume and value during H1 2026, signaling a transition from growth-driven expansion to value-driven competition.

Key market data:

According to RUNTO's full-channel push data, China's smart lock market sold 8.219 million units in H1 2026, down 8.3% year-on-year. Sales value reached RMB 4.91 billion, down 11.2%.

OVO (All View Cloud) reported a more pronounced decline, with full-channel retail volume of 7.43 million units, down 18.1%, and average retail prices falling to RMB 996, down 5.6%.

Channel dynamics:

The C-end retail channel accounted for 59.5% of total sales volume but has shown diminishing returns.

Traditional e-commerce platforms saw declining sales even during major promotional events.

Emerging e-commerce platforms (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou) saw nearly 40% year-on-year volume growth, but nearly 80% of products were priced under RMB 1,000, and high return rates have undermined efficiency.

The B-end project channel remained sluggish due to slower new home completions.

RUNTO forecasts that full-year 2026 sales volume will reach approximately 16.07 million units, with the decline potentially widening to 10%.

2. AI Technology: The Engine of Premiumization

Despite the overall market downturn, AI-enabled smart locks and premium segments have demonstrated remarkable resilience.

AI adoption acceleration:

As of H1 2026, AI smart locks accounted for 12% of sales volume on traditional e-commerce platforms. Palm-vein recognition locks captured 16% of volume and 28% of value. In the RMB 2,000+ premium market, facial recognition and catwalk screen penetration rates both exceeded 97%.

Bio-recognition technology trends (Traditional e-commerce, H1 2026):

Facial recognition locks gained 12.7 p.p. year-on-year, reaching 47.9% volume share.

Palm-vein recognition locks grew 5.1 p.p. to 16.0% volume share.

Multi-camera solutions rose 4.7 p.p. to 10.4% volume share.

Screen-equipped smart locks reached 49.4% penetration.

In Q1 2026, "facial recognition + palm-vein" combination accounted for 12.2% volume share, up 2.7 p.p. year-on-year.

Global market outlook:

The global AI-enabled smart door lock market was estimated at USD 2.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.70%. The Business Research Company reports the AI smart lock market will grow from $4.66 billion in 2025 to $5.93 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 27%, reaching $15.29 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 26.7%.

3. Brand Competition: Market Concentration Intensifies

Top three dominance:

In H1 2026, Dessmann, Xiaomi, and Kaadas together commanded 55.7% of the sales value market.

Rank

Brand

Position

1    Dessmann    Full-channel volume and value leader; No.1 in RMB 2,000+ premium segment    

2    Xiaomi    No.2 in volume (8.7% share); leveraging full-home smart ecosystem    

3    Kaadas    No.2 in value (17.1% share); facial recognition as core driver    

Other performers:

EZVIZ led the RMB 3,000+ ultra-premium dual-camera palm-vein video lock segment.

In Q1 2026, EZVIZ achieved 97.2% year-on-year growth on online channels, driven by its Blue Ocean Large Model and AI agent ecosystem.

Market consolidation:

The number of active brands decreased by nearly 20% year-on-year. New national mandatory standards raised compliance costs, accelerating the exit of tail-end manufacturers.

4. Key Technology Trends Driving the Industry

Based on Q1 2026 new product launches (17+ new models), RUNTO identified six core upgrade directions:

1. AI Large Model-Driven Intelligence

AI capabilities cover scenario intent parsing, multimodal identity verification, lifecycle event management, and emotional human-machine interaction—a shift from "passive response" to "active service."

2. Multi-Modal Biometric Fusion + AI Enhancement

Edge-side AI computing power enables palm-vein and 3D facial recognition with "self-evolution" capabilities optimized for different user demographics.

3. Multi-Camera Solutions

Dual-camera and triple-camera solutions support home scenario coverage—children, elderly, and pet monitoring—along with AI package detection.

4. Advanced Power Solutions

Dual-battery systems accounted for 23.0% of Q1 2026 online volume, up 5.0 p.p. year-on-year. Some brands introduced alternatives like perovskite photovoltaic modules enabling charging in low-light conditions.

5. Dual-Screen Interaction

Screen-equipped products accounted for 48.4% of Q1 2026 online volume. Brands including Dessmann, Kaadas, TCL, Lockin, and EZVIZ have entered the dual-screen segment.

6. Aesthetic Design Upgrades

Huawei incorporated traditional cultural design; Dessmann introduced customizable panel colors.

5. Product Innovation Spotlight

Brand

Product

Key Features

Xiaomi    Smart Door Lock 4 Pro    HD wide-angle camera with AI human detection; palm vein + 3D facial recognition; dual-battery system    

Dessmann    Q1 2026 new models    AI-powered scene recognition; emotional interaction; automatic role learning    

Kaadas    i60 Ultra    Dynamic interactive screen; AI algorithm enhancements    

EZVIZ    DL20FVS 4G Edition    4G connectivity; Blue Ocean Large Model + AI agent ecosystem    

6. Global Market Outlook

North America remains the largest AI smart lock market in 2025; Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region, driven by urban housing, smartphone-first consumers, and smart city programs.

Europe emphasizes privacy-compliant and cybersecure design, with GDPR and the EU Cyber Resilience Act shaping procurement.

Tariff impacts: Tariffs on semiconductors, biometric sensors, and communication modules have raised costs, particularly affecting North American and European markets, while encouraging local manufacturing.

Conclusion: A Market at an Inflection Point

China's smart lock industry is navigating a "cold reality" of market contraction and a "hot breakthrough" of AI-driven advancement. The H1 2026 decline reflects the transition from rapid expansion to value-driven competition.

While overall volume and value face downward pressure, the premium segment—defined by AI capabilities, multi-modal biometrics, and smart home integration—is demonstrating robust growth. The industry is shifting from price competition to innovation competition, with market share increasingly concentrated among brands that invest in technology, ecosystem development, and quality assurance.

As RUNTO forecasts, full-year 2026 volume is expected to reach approximately 16.07 million units, with the decline possibly widening to 10%. Yet the acceleration of market consolidation suggests that the strongest players will emerge better positioned for the next phase of industry growth.

Data Sources: RUNTO (洛图科技) H1 2026 Full-Channel Push Data, OVO (奥维云网) H1 2026 Monitoring Data, Bosson Research Global AI-Enabled Smart Door Lock Market Report 2026, The Business Research Company AI Smart Lock Global Market Report 2026, 360iResearch Smart Lock Market Global Forecast 2026-2032.