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The global smart lock market is poised to expand from approximately $5.0 billion in 2026 to $13.0 billion by 2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of 14.6% over the forecast period, according to a new report published by Persistence Market Research on 13 July 2026.

The market research firm identified accelerating smart home adoption, rising urbanisation, and growing consumer concern about residential and commercial security as the primary tailwinds behind the expansion. The report notes that the "widespread deployment of Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystems has made connected security devices an integral part of modern buildings," with both governments and businesses continuing to invest in smart infrastructure and digital access control systems.

The $13.0 billion projection places the smart lock industry among the faster-growing segments of the broader electronic security market, outpacing many adjacent categories in percentage growth.

The numbers behind the forecast

Persistence Market Research's baseline estimate of $5.0 billion for 2026 suggests the market has more than doubled since the start of the decade. The projected 14.6% CAGR through 2033 implies a near-tripling of market value over seven years — a trajectory that would see the sector adding roughly $8.0 billion in incremental revenue.

For comparison, an earlier PMR forecast from November 2023 had projected the market reaching $8.5 billion by 2030, a figure that now appears conservative given the upward revision evident in the latest release. Other research firms have produced differing estimates — Mordor Intelligence most recently valued the market at approximately $3.7 billion in 2026 with a 15% CAGR, while Research and Markets, in a separate June 2026 report, sized the narrower "door lock and lock set manufacturing" segment at $3.5 billion growing at a more modest 2.6%. The variation reflects differences in product scope, geographic coverage, and methodology, although the overall direction across major forecasts points to continued strong growth for smart-enabled locking products.

PMR's analysis segments the market by lock type — including deadbolts, lever handles, and padlocks — and by unlocking mechanism, covering biometric, keypad, card-based, and smartphone-controlled variants. The report also breaks down regional contributions, with North America and the Asia-Pacific region identified as the two largest regional markets.

What is driving the growth

Several convergent trends underpin the forecast. The rapid proliferation of connected-home ecosystems has placed smart locks at the centre of a broader home automation push, with devices increasingly expected to interoperate with voice assistants, security cameras, video doorbells, and energy management systems. The PMR report highlights IoT integration as a structural shift rather than a passing consumer fad.

On the product side, the industry is moving through a significant technology refresh cycle. The emergence of the Aliro protocol — backed by Apple, Google, and Samsung — aims to establish a common digital-key standard intended to make tap-to-unlock more widely interoperable across devices and ecosystems. Espressif Systems released its Aliro software development kit for the ESP32 platform in mid-July, while Austria's Nuki launched its first Aliro-certified Keypad 2 NFC as part of its United States market debut. Dreame's A10 also received Matter-over-Thread certification from the Connectivity Standards Alliance, reflecting the continued expansion of interoperability standards into more affordable product categories.

Ultra-wideband technology is also moving from premium to mainstream. Allegion's Schlage launched the Sense Pro — the company's first Matter- and UWB-compatible smart lock — at $399 in June 2026, receiving positive early reviews for its hands-free approach-to-unlock capability. The Verge described the experience as "magical." At the opposite end of the price spectrum, Huawei's Smart Door Lock X1 went on sale in China in late July at ¥14,999, featuring a gold-plated nameplate, HarmonyOS 6 integration, and visitor video messaging — evidence that the luxury segment of the smart lock category is developing its own distinctive features and pricing dynamics.

Facial-recognition smart locks, once regarded as a niche product category, have also improved markedly in recent years. A roundup review published by The Verge on 18 July concluded that on-device AI processing has significantly enhanced the category's speed, privacy characteristics, and day-to-day reliability.

The M&A landscape also reflects continued interest in the sector. MKDWELL Tech, an automotive electronics firm, announced a $240 million all-share acquisition of Landvision on 17 July, describing the transaction as part of its expansion into the smart-home and IoT markets. Fortune Brands Innovations, meanwhile, has continued to strengthen its residential hardware portfolio through acquisitions such as Emtek and Schaub.

What it means for the industry

The PMR forecast, taken alongside the cadence of product launches, standardisation milestones, and capital flows observed in the first half of 2026, paints a picture of an industry that appears to be moving beyond the early-adopter phase.

The $13.0 billion 2033 target, if achieved, would represent a substantial increase in the role of smart locks within the broader global lock and hardware market. It also implies that smart locks would account for a significantly larger share of the overall lock and hardware industry than they do today — a shift that carries important implications for traditional lock manufacturers and their distribution networks.

For component suppliers such as Espressif, the proliferation of connectivity requirements in door hardware represents a growing addressable market. For platform providers — Apple, Google, Amazon, and Samsung — the smart lock serves as a gateway device that strengthens ecosystem integration within the connected home. And for established lock manufacturers such as ASSA ABLOY, Allegion, and dormakaba, the pace of the transition raises questions about how quickly legacy electromechanical product lines can be refreshed while maintaining established mechanical product businesses.

ASSA ABLOY's second-quarter 2026 results, released on 22 July, showed record operating margins supported by acquisitions, though the company noted continued headwinds in its Asia-Pacific division, particularly in China. Allegion's recent Schlage product launches likewise suggest that the company sees UWB and Matter as important technologies for maintaining its position in the premium residential segment as competition from lower-cost manufacturers continues to intensify.

The PMR report was published as a syndicated press release via PR Newswire. While the release did not identify the report's authors by name, Persistence Market Research — headquartered in London with a significant operational presence in Pune, India — has published more than 4,000 syndicated market research reports and positions itself as a full-service market intelligence firm serving Fortune 500 clients.