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Research and Markets publishes 178-page strategic report as smart locks outpace traditional mechanical segments

The global door lock and lock set manufacturing market is projected to grow from $3.5bn (£2.7bn) in 2024 to $4.1bn by 2030, expanding at a compound annual rate of 2.6%, according to a major industry report published by Research and Markets in June 2026.

The 178-page study, "Door Lock and Lock Set Manufacturing Market – Global Strategic Business Report," produced by Market Glass, Inc., profiles 34 leading manufacturers and covers markets across the United States, Canada, Japan, China, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. The report segments the industry into locksets, deadbolt locks, keyless locks, and other product categories, each tracked individually for growth trajectory.

The headline figure of 2.6% CAGR — while modest for the overall category — masks a far more dramatic divergence taking place within it. According to the report, the market is increasingly divided between a slower-growing traditional mechanical segment and a faster-growing smart and electronic lock segment, driven by smart-home adoption and construction activity in emerging economies.

Locksets lead growth at 3.3% CAGR; deadbolts lag behind at 1.6%

Among the product segments analyzed, locksets are identified as the fastest-growing category, forecast to reach $1.8bn by 2030 at a compound annual rate of 3.3%. This segment encompasses traditional mechanical locksets — including mortise, cylindrical, and tubular designs — as well as increasingly prevalent electronic and connected variants that incorporate Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and biometric authentication.

The research points to several converging factors behind the locksets segment's outperformance: continued construction activity, particularly in urbanising Asian markets; growing consumer interest in smart-home integration; and sustained demand for keyless entry solutions across residential and commercial settings.

In contrast, the deadbolt locks segment is projected to grow at just 1.6% CAGR over the forecast period. The report suggests that demand growth in mature markets is comparatively limited, while a growing share of security upgrades are occurring through integrated lock systems that combine mechanical and electronic functionality.

Keyless locks, though not broken out with a separate numerical forecast in the summary, are identified by the report as a high-growth category, driven by demand for locking systems controlled via keypad, mobile app, or voice assistant.

United States remains largest single market; China grows at nearly double the global average

The geographic picture laid out by the report underscores differing growth patterns across major markets. The United States accounted for an estimated $952.7m of the market in 2024 — making it the single largest national market by a significant margin — supported by home improvement spending, relatively high smart-home adoption, and an established replacement market.

China, however, is outpacing many other major markets in growth terms. The report forecasts the Chinese market will reach $789.8m by 2030, expanding at a 5.1% CAGR — nearly double the global average. The authors cite urbanisation, residential construction activity, and increasing adoption of digital access technologies as key drivers.

The regional divergence is starker still when viewed through the broader Asia-Pacific lens. The report notes that Asia-Pacific accounts for roughly 38% of global volume, making it the largest regional market by unit sales. Smart-city initiatives across China, India, and Southeast Asia are highlighted as one potential demand catalyst, alongside the growing deployment of electronic access systems in new residential developments.

Europe, by contrast, is characterized in the report as a moderate-growth region where renovation cycles, regulatory requirements, and building standards play an important role in purchasing decisions. Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 1.4% CAGR, while Canada is projected at 2.0% and Japan at 0.9%.

Smart-home integration and urbanization reshape competitive landscape

The report identifies six principal trends reshaping the door lock and lock set manufacturing industry through the end of the decade. First among them is the integration of smart and connected technologies — Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, NFC, Z-Wave, Zigbee, and biometric sensors — into products that were once purely mechanical. The report notes that locks are increasingly being designed to integrate with broader smart-home and building-automation ecosystems rather than operate solely as standalone hardware.

A second structural driver is the global construction and urbanisation wave. With the UN projecting that 68% of the world's population will live in urban areas by 2050, each new residential or commercial building requires multiple door lock installations, creating a substantial long-term source of demand.

Other trends highlighted include the continued adoption of touchless and keyless access technologies, particularly in healthcare, hospitality, and multi-tenant residential settings; increasingly stringent building codes mandating certified locking systems for public infrastructure, schools, and hospitals; the growth of e-commerce channels, which has expanded consumer access to smart-lock products; and ongoing industry consolidation, with established manufacturers continuing to invest in connected-access technologies through acquisitions and partnerships.

The 34 companies profiled in the report span the industry's full competitive spectrum. At the top end sit global conglomerates — Sweden's ASSA ABLOY (owner of Yale, HID, Sargent, August Home, and Level Lock), Ireland-based Allegion (owner of Schlage, Von Duprin, and LCN), and Switzerland's Dormakaba — alongside major regional and specialist players including India's Godrej & Boyce, Japan's MIWA Lock, Spain's SALTO Systems, and a range of manufacturers and building-access technology providers operating across international markets. The report also tracks diversified industrial and building-technology companies including Honeywell and Johnson Controls, both of which maintain interests in access-control and building-security solutions.