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In the first quarter of 2025, China's smart lock industry maintained its strong growth momentum, achieving a high-quality start to the year. According to aggregated data from AVC, the online retail volume of smart locks in China reached 1.79 million units in Q1, with retail sales amounting to 1.8 billion RMB. Both volume and sales posted year-on-year growth exceeding 20%, further cementing smart locks' strategic importance within the smart home ecosystem.

At this pivotal stage of industry development, four major forces are driving growth in China’s smart lock market in 2025: government subsidies, channel upgrades, evolving consumer demand, and technological innovation.

1. Government Subsidies: Unlocking New Growth Potential

In 2025, the number of household appliance categories eligible for “trade-in” subsidies expanded from eight to twelve, with consumers able to receive up to a 20% subsidy on the sales price per item. The program’s scope broadened from basic household appliances to include smart 3C (Computer, Communication, Consumer Electronics) home products, significantly lowering the cost barrier for purchasing smart locks and stimulating demand.

High-quality smart locks, in particular, align with consumers' aspirations for a premium lifestyle, accelerating the rise of the mid- and high-end market segments.

Sales data highlights a clear trend toward market upgrading. AVC’s online monitoring data shows that in Q1 2025:

• Sales volume for smart locks priced under 1,000 RMB grew by 24% year-on-year, with retail sales up 21%.

• In the 1,000–2,000 RMB range, sales volume rose by 36%, and sales revenue by 33%.

• The high-end market (above 2,000 RMB) performed exceptionally well, with sales volume up 59% and sales revenue up 49%, setting a new quarterly growth record for the past three years.

2. Channel Empowerment: Boosting Value Creation

From a channel perspective, e-commerce platforms continue to play a vital role in expanding the smart lock market. Traditional e-commerce, in particular, leveraged its broad user base and the advantage of government subsidies to drive online market growth.

Amid the subsidy-driven consumption boom, both traditional and content-driven e-commerce platforms are shifting towards a "quality upgrade" phase, with product pricing structures increasingly leaning towards mid- and high-end offerings.

AVC's monitoring data shows that the average online selling price rose steadily month-on-month from January to March. The average price on traditional e-commerce platforms surpassed 1,000 RMB in Q1, reaching 1,022 RMB, reflecting strong market resilience and growing consumer recognition of smart lock value.

3. Evolving Consumer Trends: Driving Market Segmentation

As the consumer market continues to expand, diverse demands and preferences among different groups are becoming more pronounced, accelerating segmentation and diversification in the smart lock industry.

Younger consumers favor minimalist, stylish designs that integrate seamlessly with modern home aesthetics, while seniors and children prioritize simplified interfaces and ease of use.

In terms of pricing, value-for-money remains a dominant demand. However, expectations for enhanced quality and features are rising, prompting brands to broaden their product portfolios from entry-level models to high-end flagships. Consumers now have more options to match their specific needs, budgets, and tastes.

On the innovation front, specific feature demands are gaining traction. For example, smart locks equipped with large peephole screens and multiple cameras allow real-time monitoring of outside activity, enhancing home security.

As Gen Z consumers' purchasing power grows and the silver economy expands, personalized needs from these two demographics are increasingly being met, further driving market segmentation.

4. Technological Innovation: Powering Product Upgrades

China’s smart lock industry is currently undergoing a critical phase of biometric technology advancement. Facial recognition and vein recognition technologies have become key drivers of product innovation.

Facial recognition smart locks, offering seamless unlocking experiences and rapid market penetration, have become the dominant segment. AVC data reveals that in Q1 2025:

• Facial recognition smart locks accounted for 41% of traditional e-commerce sales volume and 53% of sales revenue.

Meanwhile, palm vein recognition is steadily gaining ground in the market, further expanding its share.

In terms of pricing, both facial and palm vein recognition smart locks are following a dual-track model of "high-end + value-for-money," which aligns with the trend of consumer segmentation and meets a wider range of usage scenarios. Technological innovation continues to unleash new market opportunities.

Driven by both supply and demand, smart locks are rapidly evolving from single-function to multifunctional products. The combination of "peephole + large screen + facial recognition" is now the mainstream trend, with market share and growth rates steadily climbing.

Moreover, products that integrate palm vein recognition alongside these features — combining "peephole + large screen + facial recognition + palm vein recognition" — offer dual-layer biometric security and are achieving growth rates significantly higher than the industry average, emerging as the next major market opportunity.

5. 2025 Market Outlook for China’s Smart Lock Industry

Fueled by government subsidy programs, the smart lock market is not only tapping into pent-up replacement demand but also unlocking new consumer potential.

According to AVC forecasts, China’s full-channel smart lock sales are expected to exceed 22 million units in 2025, setting a new record and achieving a year-on-year growth of 9%. The industry is now accelerating towards a phase of mass adoption and scaled development.