Prediction of Product Trends in China's Smart Door Lock Market in 2024
During the three-year period of the pandemic, the Chinese smart door lock market has maintained a resilient growth momentum. In the post pandemic era, with the recovery of demand for travel and business trips, the smart door lock market closely related to home security has still maintained an upward trend. On the other hand, with changes in user cognition and lifestyle habits, consumers' demand for building convenient living and smart home systems continues to increase. As the facade and typical physical entrance of smart homes, smart door locks have become an essential part of building whole house intelligence.
According to data from RUNTO, the omni channel sales of smart door locks in China reached 17.6 million units in 2022, an increase of 3.8% compared to 2021. Although the market growth rate has slowed down, it still broke the record high scale.
Sales scale and changes in China's smart door lock market from 2017 to 2022
Data source: RUNTO data, unit: 10000 sets, %
Entering 2023, from January to November, the cumulative monitoring sales of China's intelligent door lock online market reached 4.001 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Looking at the whole year, it is still expected to maintain a positive growth of about 3%.
Monthly sales trend of China's intelligent door lock online market from 2022 to 2023
Data source: RUNTO online monitoring data, unit: 10000 sets,%
In 2023, the overall competition in the smart door lock industry intensified, and the supply chain became increasingly mature, resulting in lower entry barriers and numerous industry participants. As a result, product homogenization is severe, and price wars are imminent. The cumulative online monitoring sales in the first 11 months have decreased by 9.6% year-on-year.
However, leading smart door lock brands have never stopped making significant innovations in their products. New products such as cat eye large screens, cost-effective facial recognition locks, palm veins, and dual cameras will emerge in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, RUNTO believes that the product development of China's smart door lock market will present the following characteristics:
Unlocking method: biometric technologies such as facial recognition and vein recognition accelerate penetration
In the past two years, facial recognition, as a cutting-edge intelligent security technology, has been rapidly applied in the smart door lock industry, especially the high cost-effective facial recognition locks are becoming a popular product. According to online monitoring data from RUNTO, the cumulative sales of facial recognition door locks increased by 82.4% year-on-year from January to November 2023.
On the one hand, facial recognition smart locks have advantages such as fast recognition speed, high security, strong reliability, and uniqueness, which are recognized by consumers; On the other hand, the cost of raw materials has rapidly decreased, with the module cost of 3D structured light decreasing by nearly 50%. The combination of cost reduction and market competition has driven the average price of facial recognition smart locks to a deeper level. According to online monitoring data from RUNTO, the average price of facial recognition smart locks has dropped from 2610 yuan in January 2022 to 1664 yuan in November 2023. In addition, markets below 1500 yuan have achieved rapid growth, with sales increasing by over 260% year-on-year; facial recognition locks priced below a thousand yuan have occupied an important position on the best-selling list of products.
The average price trend of China's facial recognition lockline market from 2022 to 2023
Data source: RUNTO online monitoring data, unit: %
RUNTO predicts that in 2024, the average price of facial recognition locks will continue to spiral down, and their penetration rate in the overall market will increase from 20% in 2023 to over 25% in 2024.
In addition, vein recognition technology has a wider audience and advantages such as greater accuracy, stability, and security. At present, the main technical routes refer to the veins and palmar veins. Due to factors such as cost and power consumption, the penetration rate of vein recognition door locks is relatively low, with a cumulative online market penetration rate of less than 5% to date. However, mainstream brands Kaadas and LOCKIN are accelerating their layout in the venous recognition market.
RUNTO predicts that in 2024, vein recognition will continue to be one of the main exploration and innovation directions for corporate brands, with a market penetration rate of 10%.
Visualization: The cat's eye large screen lock will account for 50%; 5% equipped with cameras
In 2023, mainstream smart door lock brands have sparked a wave of visualization, and equipped with a cat's eye large screen has become the main upgrade direction. According to online monitoring data from RUNTO, the online sales share of Cat's Eye large screen locks increased from 15.4% in January 2022 to 38.4% in November 2023. RUNTO predicts that by 2024, the sales share of the online market for Cat's Eye large screen locks is expected to approach 50%.
Market share of cat eye large screen locks in China's intelligent door lock online market from 2022 to 2023
Data source: RUNTO online monitoring data, unit: %
In addition, there is a new breakthrough in visualization for smart door locks: the addition of cameras. In this way, the device not only has the functions of "monitoring+intercom+capture" of the smart cat eye, but also can achieve security functions such as detection and warning, upgrading the smart door lock from passive defense to active defense, providing better security protection.
Currently, brands such as Kaadas, Yingshi, Lecheng, and Philips have established their presence, and it is expected that the online market penetration rate of smart door locks equipped with cameras will reach 5% by 2024.
Appearance: tending towards integration; anti pinch hand design is user-friendly
In addition to convenience and safety, brand owners will also pay more attention to the appearance design of smart door locks, and innovate on the basis of ensuring a reasonable structure.
The design of smart door locks is developing towards integration, with no longer clearly defined functional areas such as password button area, fingerprint recognition area, and facial recognition area. This greatly enhances the appearance of smart door locks and interprets the integration of home decoration.
With the popularization of fully automatic locks, the problem of gripping hands has become prominent. More and more brands are emphasizing anti pinch hand design in their products, ensuring smoother door opening and closing while effectively avoiding accidents when opening the door, and ensuring that the elderly and children do not get caught in and out.
The online market for smart door locks in China will reach 4.51 million units in 2024, rising up by 4%.
Overall, as an important intelligent hardware within the intelligent security system, smart door locks are the most commonly used and convenient entry and exit gateway for households. With the improvement of product safety, convenience, and design sense, the future growth space of the smart door lock market can still be viewed optimistically.
RUNTO predicts that in 2024, the online market for smart door locks in China will maintain stable growth, with a scale of 4.51 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4%.
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