Big Data Report of Smart lock Industry
In the smart home, the smart door lock is the first door to open the home connection, attracting many businesses to enter. According to the person in charge of lofandi marketing center, "there are about 600 million gates in China. The service life of a lock is about 10 years, and more than 50 million locks need to be replaced every year. This has a broader prospect than the mobile phone industry that has entered the stock market competition."
In terms of the recent intelligent door lock carrying technology, the combination of Internet of things technology and intelligent door lock has become an important development trend. At present, the newly started NB IOT intelligent door lock solution provides communication support in the low-speed and low-cost field of the Internet of things. It has the characteristics of wide coverage, multiple connections, low rate, low cost and low power consumption. This new technology also needs NB IOT chip as the foundation. The smaller the chip, the lower the cost. Therefore, having NB IOT chips with high performance and low cost is very important for manufacturers who want to transform cloud intelligent locks.
In 2018, smart locks gradually entered the market blowout period, with more than 1300 smart lock manufacturers and more than 2800 brands swarming into the market. If you want to take the lead in the industry, you can't do without understanding the overall environment of the whole industry. Next, Xiaobian will bring you big data for the development of the smart lock industry in the next five years!
The market demand of smart lock application is usually calculated based on the existing inventory and annual new inventory of real estate. From 1991 to the end of 2015, the cumulative number of completed sets of urban commodity and affordable housing in China, plus the original stock before the housing system reform, plus 70 million sets of incomplete property rights houses, with a scale of about 354.11 million to 377.81 million sets, minus the estimated demolition of 20 million sets, At the end of 2015, the urban housing stock was between 328.81 million and 354.11 million units.
Statistics of China's annual new housing and accommodation room stock from 2009 to 2015 (data source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Assuming that each household has one household lock, and about 7 million commercial houses were added last year, it is estimated that the market demand for intelligent locks is about 350 million only for urban houses; If, with the development of the market, indoor locks are also replaced with intelligent locks, assuming that each household needs two indoor locks, the potential demand for intelligent locks in urban houses is 350 million + (350 million) × 2) = 1.05 billion.
According to the existing 3 million hotel rooms, each room is equipped with a smart lock as standard, and 3 million are also required.
In the commercial field, under China's unique mixed ownership economic system, there are all kinds of large, medium and small enterprises, which are subdivided into state-owned enterprises, joint ventures, private enterprises and individual businesses. By 2015, the number of legal persons in China had exceeded 12 million. In addition, according to the data disclosed by Wang Jianxiang, deputy director of the electromechanical equipment bidding Center of the Ministry of industry and information technology and deputy director of the small and medium-sized enterprise department of the Ministry of industry and information technology in July 2015, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in China exceeded 70 million. Under such a large volume, if an enterprise needs an intelligent lock, the total demand will reach 70 million. In fact, the department setting and office space of the enterprise are more complex and personalized, and the number of locks required is several times or even dozens of times of 70 million.
Based on the above, there are only three types of urban residential buildings, accommodation rooms and enterprise office space in China, and the potential demand for intelligent locks is no less than 1.1 billion. Based on the current mainstream selling price of intelligent lock - 1000 yuan / piece, the potential market capacity of intelligent lock shall not be less than 1100 billion yuan. According to statistics, there are about 460 million families in China, and about 20% of the population in densely populated cities and towns mainly rent houses, and the proportion of renting houses in first tier cities is as high as 40%; From the perspective of urban development and urban resources, it is expected that the proportion of rental housing will exceed 50% in the future. This special situation will accelerate the demand for intelligent locks in existing rental houses, public rental houses and apartments under construction.
Current situation of intelligent lock Market
According to the demand for real estate fixed assets, the potential market capacity of intelligent locks in the three areas of urban housing, hotel accommodation and enterprise office is roughly estimated, with a scale of 1.1 trillion, which can be said to be very huge; Taking the current output value of the security industry as an example, including semiconductor supply, product manufacturing (including physical security and electronic security), agency, system integration and engineering construction, the market scale in 2016 was less than 490 billion (data source: A & S). With the price of a lock alone in 2017, the scale of intelligent lock is more than twice the total market scale of security, which is amazing; If the average price is 1500 yuan / piece in 2016 and 2500 yuan / piece in 2015, the market scale will double.
However, for the time being, the potential market size of smart locks with a potential market size of more than trillion is still superficial. As of 2016, there have been more than 1000 smart lock enterprises. As soon as the upsurge began, there was a fierce fight. The following is an analysis from three aspects.
Market: difficult to enter the market pain point
Through communication with many practitioners, it is generally believed that the penetration rate of smart locks in Japan and South Korea is more than 50%, while the domestic penetration rate is less than 1%; The market potential is huge. In addition, the international data cited in the publicity pages of some smart lock companies also show that 97% of families in China need to replace smart locks. If this is the case, the smart lock market will detonate in the past two years and become the hottest single product field in China.
At present, the promotion of smart lock is mostly promoted by the concepts of smart home, smart elderly care, health care and hotel / apartment, and corresponding functions are designed for the concept, such as remote door opening, biometric keyless door opening, etc. in fact, these functions are the basic functions that smart lock should have, and can not form an effective selling point. When it is impossible to form a rigid demand, the smart lock mainly develops in the two directions of hotel and home. The former follows the shared economy route - "the dog opened hotel is locked by the wolf and used by the pig". Hotel managers can install smart locks for their guest rooms at low or even no cost, such as where to go; The latter is mainly accepted by the young generation who accept new things quickly.
In addition, at present, the functions of many smart locks have shrunk compared with the publicity. For example, they are unable to connect to the Internet. Users spend thousands of yuan to buy a "biometric mechanical lock" that can open the door only with fingerprints. At the same time, they often worry about the battery life of the lock; The convenience of the intelligent lock is greatly reduced. Shipment: low starting point and rapid development
Recently, we have seen such a data on many websites: in 2016, the domestic smart lock market exceeded 300 billion, and the annual shipment was more than 200 million.
Price: sell cabbage before it grows
The second rise of smart lock took about 6 years. The industry has not really formed a climate, but the product market has already started a price war. The most obvious thing is that the average price of products is declining year by year:
Analysis on the price trend of smart lock (the lock price is approximate, and the inaccurate statistical data source: A & s Research)
According to the analysis of a & S's price trend since the birth of the smart lock, it is found that the price of the smart lock has always shown a step-by-step downward trend year by year: the early price was 3000 ~ 4000 yuan / piece; By the beginning of 2015, the selling price of 2500 yuan could still be maintained, but in the second half of the year, the selling price was reduced to 2000 yuan / piece; By this year, the overall unit price will exceed the lower limit of 1000 yuan / handle; It is expected that from 2018, the smart lock will become a popular machine within 1000 yuan. At the current mass production level of smart locks, the cost price of a smart lock is about 500 yuan / piece, and the gross profit margin of the enterprise will be continuously compressed with the decline of the selling price.
Compared with the overall price decline trend, what is more worrying is that the smart lock market has not yet grown, but there have been "people-friendly" smart locks on the market, with prices ranging from 150 to 400 yuan / piece, which is far lower than the cost price of 500 yuan / piece of mainstream brands. Such an ultra-low price makes people wonder whether it is "the landlady has run away and the boss has no intention to operate". In the face of such a troublemaker, The competitive variables of smart lock are difficult to predict. Perhaps the peaceful price war of smart lock industry will become bloody in advance, or rolling market competition with the help of capital market.
As the saying goes, every penny is worth every penny. Ultra low price competition enters the market too early, which is not conducive to the growth of emerging markets. First, it is difficult to exchange low cost for high-quality parts and technology; Secondly, the plagiarism of taking has cooled the heart of market research and development, and the subsequent technology drive has slowed down; The last is the user experience. The author believes that this is the most critical factor. When the market has not really risen, if the troublemakers simply pursue the hot spots, the product quality will not be guaranteed under normal circumstances. If the sales volume is large, there will be a more common bad customer experience, which is bound to affect the further development of smart locks.
Smart lock 6 camps
According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2016, there were more than 1000 domestic intelligent lock enterprises. According to the background analysis of these enterprises, they can be roughly divided into the following six categories.
The first is the traditional lock enterprise camp. There are many such enterprises, such as Puxin hardware. These enterprises have inherent advantages in the core components of locks, such as lock cylinder, spring, bullet and lock tongue, and have ready-made factories and suppliers. As long as several core components such as circuit board, biometric module, microprocessor CPU and embedded program are added, they can quickly cut into intelligent locks and make rapid transformation.
Followed by security enterprises. Mainly visual intercom enterprises and some video monitoring enterprises. Smart home is the breakthrough in the transformation of visual intercom enterprises. Therefore, almost all visual intercom enterprises have developed intelligent locks, such as anjubao, Guanlin, etc; It is characterized by associating the intelligent lock with the visual intercom system through the gateway and going to the cloud.
Thirdly, the smart home appliance camp led by Haier and Midea. Such enterprises began to layout smart appliances as early as the last century. Due to the lack of a good entry point, smart appliances do not deserve the name. In the new round of smart home wave, some enterprises focus on smart home solutions, such as Midea, and smart lock is only a part of them; Some enterprises focus on smart locks and other products, such as Haier. At the same time, Haier is also one of the smart lock brands with more product models.
The fourth is the IT camp dominated by Lenovo and godson, which launched smart locks through its smart home business unit.
The fifth is the communication camp dominated by ZTE and Samsung, which is basically the same as the mode of it camp entering the smart lock. They are all operated through the smart home business department. The brand is big and the background is loud, but the products are few.
Finally, intelligent lock enterprises catching up with the upsurge, such as Yunding, Xiaodi, Guojia, etc.
This wave of smart lock trend makes the traditional lock camp and catch-up camp most ready to move. Among them, many enterprises with early layout but not yet profitable want to take this opportunity to fight a beautiful turnaround.
Smart lock category
In terms of investigation, the history of intelligent lock is not short. It has been more than 20 years in China alone, such as fingerprint lock; However, limited to biometric technology, electronic control technology, communication network technology, production cost and other factors, it has not developed rapidly.
At present, the so-called smart lock is the second generation product that sprouted around 2012 and began to explode around 2015; It is an extended application based on the great development of electronic technology, communication technology and biometric technology.
However, it has to be said that once the second generation intelligent lock has been developed, it has received extensive attention, and enterprises have also developed various categories of products for different application needs.
By application scenario
According to the application scenarios, intelligent locks can be divided into household intelligent locks, indoor intelligent locks, hotel intelligent locks, apartment intelligent locks, office intelligent locks and shared bicycle intelligent locks. Among them, the home smart lock is the most popular product type on the market, and it is also the product dominated by various smart lock brands. In terms of product models, the home smart lock styles account for more than 70%. Due to different application scenarios, the main functions of smart locks will be different. In general, their differences are as follows:
Smart home smart lock: it is networked with the smart home control gateway through wireless network technology. In addition to the keyless door opening feature, it focuses on cloud door opening, role permissions (such as nanny, visitor), etc; In the new generation of products, the intelligent lock is integrated with the cat's eye, and has the functions of protection and monitoring at the same time;
Smart campus smart lock: single function, mainly to ensure the privacy and safety of the room and the convenience of opening the door;
Smart hotel smart lock: combined with hotel accommodation needs, it supports online and offline biometric unlocking function and automatic settlement function, focusing on the convenience of hotel check-in and check-out;
Smart apartment smart lock: it supports the reservation function of the accommodation cycle, and supports the association with the intelligent meter reading and settlement system to realize the intelligent settlement and unified management of apartment rental;
Smart office smart lock: mainly refers to the glass door smart lock. In addition to the basic opening function, it also supports association with the attendance system to replace the attendance machine to complete the attendance function;
Shared bicycle intelligent lock: This is the most common non building safety intelligent lock at present. It is mainly used for unlocking, cost settlement and vehicle positioning of shared bicycles.
By identification technology
The unlocking technology of intelligent lock mainly includes short-range wireless technology identification (such as Bluetooth, NFC, RFID), key, password, fingerprint, finger vein, face, remote app, etc. among them, wireless technology identification, key and password are the basic unlocking methods of intelligent lock, and even one of the functions of traditional lock, which are not regarded as the technical division of intelligent lock; The app can only be enabled when the smart lock supports the online mode. It is not a necessary function of each smart lock, nor is it a judgment condition for the type of smart lock. Therefore, intelligent locks are mainly distinguished according to biometric methods, mainly including:
Fingerprint lock: fingerprint identification is the most widely used biometric technology in intelligent locks. It is divided into optical fingerprint lock, semiconductor fingerprint lock (capacitive and inductive) and RF fingerprint lock. Optical fingerprint identification technology is generally used for medium and low-end products because of its low security; RF fingerprint (also known as 3D fingerprint identification technology) lock has high cost and few applications; Therefore, most fingerprint locks on the market usually use semiconductor fingerprint identification technology;
Finger vein lock: it is the safest biometric technology among smart locks. However, it means that the core technology of vein identification is in the hands of Hitachi. At present, there are few local enterprises that can develop finger vein identification module. From the perspective of technology and cost, it means that only a few companies such as Haier have launched vein fingerprint lock;
Face recognition lock: that is, face recognition authentication is carried out by collecting 2000 or even tens of thousands of feature points (different points collected by different enterprises and different algorithms). At present, almost all face recognition technologies in intelligent locks use dual cameras for 3D modeling, and assist infrared to detect the features in the face, which is known to have the ability of twin recognition. However, from the perspective of the current leading 3D face recognition technology, the continuation of face lock is only Shangtang and unparalleled technology, and the security remains to be verified.